A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
